Let’s take a look at Bitcoin! Looking at the four hour BTC -3.38% chart, you’ll probably notice things look slightly different. Unfortunately, I had to restart my computer, and I lost my all of my charts in the process, so I had to redo them. They’re all pretty much the same, so the old analyses should still be comparable to the new charts.
Here on BTC -3.38% , we can see that we had a break below the “heavy resistance” level (at the 50% retrace) then BTC -3.38% formed a series of bear flags, inside of a symmetrical triangle, and then miraculously broke to the upside of the triangle. We can see now, that BTC -3.38% has turned lower and is testing the 50 EMA (in orange) for support, after breaking above it on the symmetrical triangle breakout. Whether or not the 50 holds as support, will be a critical indicator to watch going forward. I’ve drawn a pink downtrend channel on the BTC -3.38% chart, to show you that we are still in a bear market correction. Make no mistake, until we break the top side of this pink downtrend channel , the bears will remain in control.
If you’ll notice, there is a dotted center line, in the middle of the channel. I noticed that there seems to be a pattern, in the way that BTC -3.38% has acted, after the center line of the channel is surpassed. At the beginning (left side) of the channel, you can see that when BTC -3.38% broke above the center line, it hit the top of the channel. After that, it broke below the center line, then rallied back above it later, but failed to stay above. A little later, we can see that it rallied back above, and then reached the top of the channel again. Then, BTC -3.38% fell back below the center line, and then failed to stay above it again. Now, we have just broken back above. So, is the pattern Top, fail, top, fail, top? It could be. As a professional trader, I look for obscure patterns and technical nuances that give me an edge on the market. This is a good example of a pattern that COULD repeat itself. To know for sure, we need to see how BTC -3.38% behaves here at the 50 EMA . Remember, baby steps people. If BTC -3.38% fails to hold the 50 EMA , and especially if it drops back below the center line of the channel, then obviously, the pattern is not repetitive. However, if we see a hold at the 50, and BTC -3.38% turns back to the upside, after establishing the 50 EMA as new support, then it would certainly increase the probability that the pattern will come to fruition.
Looking at the MACD , we can see that there has been a small bullish divergence , as momentum made higher highs, while price made lower lows. It is a small addition to a slight, tiny little hint of bullishness. Don’t, don’t, DON’T FORGET, that we are in a huge downtrend channel . Until BTC -3.38% gets above it, it will remain in a technical bear market correction. If the center line is broken, the repetitive pattern would be nullified. Each low made in the triangle could then act as support, with a larger support level at the 78.6% retrace, and then the bear flag target and the bottom of the channel. If we hold the 50 EMA , the 200 EMA (in purple,) the heavy resistance, and then the top of the channel, will be in play.